While I cannot recommend a particular approach to estimating probabilities in soccer, I can provide a simulation framework for the coming World Cup tournament. The schedules were compiled from the FIFA and Wikipedia sites, and the structure is there to input team ratings, churn through a hastily modified log5 approach, and generate simulations in a Monte Carlo method.
Email or comment with advice on improvements, including team ratings and a formulaic approach to assess win/lose/draw probabilities given those ratings.
World Cup Simulator
Original Author- Erich
Original Release Date- 20100603
5 comments:
Where did the rating that are included come from? For now, I would recommend Nate Silver's SPI's he made for ESPN.
Ratings were a hack job using FIFA rankings.
Silver's SPI would be great, though he has not released many details of his game probability model. If you can generate a function that comes close to his two examples described here, that would be something we can try to put underneath this spreadsheet's hood.
Could we just create log5 numbers using his Offensive and Defensive Ratings?
During qualifying, I used his Offensive and Defensive Ratings between opponents (scaled against average) and got winning percentages that were pretty close to lines at Pinny so I felt good about them.
Ties present a difficulty with log5.
While I am skilled in Excel, I'm not the best mathematical reverse engineer. If you have a formula which you would like to use within this engine, email me and I'll replace the current hackery with whatever has worked for you.
Just sent you a ratings file
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