As a demonstration of the Monte Carlo method, the attached file gives users a framework to simulate the baseball playoffs either via straight statistical probability or Monte Carlo analysis. Users can apply their preferred Win percentage to each contender, whether it be regular season winning percentage, pythagorean win percentage, or otherwise. Users can also shade these win percentages to express their own opinions on adjustments from regular season performance to playoff strength.
Note that this is an early version rushed out for the coming start of the playoffs. Revisions will be made this week regarding the odds calculations given playoff results are present.
** Update ** Some revisions have been completed, but significant changes are needed to accurately calculate statistical odds given results in progress. Those changes will likely wait until the NBA playoffs and next year's MLB playoffs. For the time being, users should rely on Monte Carlo simulations for creating probabilities once the games have started.
Baseball Playoffs
Original author- Erich
Revision date- 20080928
**Macros must be enabled for full functionality. If you prefer to review the macro code before enabling, open with macros as disabled, open the Visual Basic Editor (Alt+F11) and review the workbook's worksheet and modules.**
No comments:
Post a Comment